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Probability Essentials

Use the science of probability to turn vague terms like "likely" into precise values you can use to assess risks and alternatives. This beginning course gives you all you need to apply probability to real-world questions. Use Bayes' Rule to incorporate your contextual knowledge. Combine simple probabilities to assess complex events. Use conditional probability to focus on groups or situations. Draw correct conclusions from conditional probabilities, including false positives and false negatives. Avoid the many probability fallacies that often lead to bad decisions. Quizzes, exercises, challenges, and optional spreadsheets are included.

53 Enrolled (1) Beginner

Course Goal

  • Avoid the probability fallacies that often mislead people
  • Calculate probabilities using cases, historical data, building complex probabilities from simpler ones
  • Apply Bayes' Rule to bring outside knowledge into your probability estimates
  • Use expected value to assess and compare alternatives
  • Focus your analysis on segments or situations using conditional probability, including false positives and false negatives

Who This Training Is For

  • Consultants
  • Executives and Managers
  • IT/Business analysts
  • Project Managers
  • Project team members


How students rated this courses


(Based on 1 reviews )



Carol Jacoby

Analyst and Instructor | Serving Technical Managers and Decision Makers | Turning data into actionable insights

4.8 Instructor Rating

I turn data into actionable insights. I can help you move decisively through your most knotty or slippery problem, whether it has too much data, too little data, too many unknowns, or too many constraints. I’m an instructor and consultant in data science, decision analysis, Excel for analysts and decision-makers, statistics for Six Sigma, systems engineering, and more. I’m the author of the book "Simple Spreadsheets for Hard Decisions," which teaches leaders to use the interactive features of Excel to explore ever-changing questions. I’ve taught these powerful techniques to technical managers at major corporations and government agencies through short courses at major universities. Now, after 20 years, I’m bringing these simple but strong tools to a general audience through the Udemy class series, “Excel for Decision Makers.” The first is now available, “Insights from Data using Excel.” 

I love doing mathematics research. I have a Ph.D. in mathematics with several recent research papers in peer-reviewed journals and a graduate-level text, “Abelian Groups: Structures and Classifications” (with Peter Loth, de Gruyter, 2019). Before founding Jacoby Consulting, I had 28 years of experience as a systems engineer specializing in the critical early stages of system development. 

Specialties: Data science, decision analysis, systems engineering, systems-of-systems, assessment of needs, concept development, mission analysis, concept effectiveness, system simulation, system trade studies, Microsoft Excel, writing, briefing, training, motivational speaking, intelligent transportation systems, defense, mathematics research in abelian group theory and logic.

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What's Included?

  • Language : English
  • Level : Beginner
  • Duration : 2.0 Hrs
  • Type : Instructor-led
  • Releases :
  • Category : Analytics

Training 5 or more people?

Unlimited access for your entire SAP team.


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